Abstract
Abstract. Rapid urban development between the 1960 and 2010 decades have changed the urban landscape and pattern in the Kowloon Peninsula of Hong Kong. This paper aims to study the changes of urban morphological parameters between the 1985 and 2010 and explore their influences on the urban heat island (UHI) effect. This study applied a mono-window algorithm to retrieve the land surface temperature (LST) using Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) images from 1987 to 2009. In order to estimate the effects of local urban morphological parameters to LST, the global surface temperature anomaly was analysed. Historical 3D building model was developed based on aerial photogrammetry technique using aerial photographs from 1964 to 2010, in which the urban digital surface models (DSMs) including elevations of infrastructures and buildings have been generated. Then, urban morphological parameters (i.e. frontal area index (FAI), sky view factor (SVF)), vegetation fractional cover (VFC), global solar radiation (GSR), Normalized Difference Built-Up Index (NDBI), wind speed were derived. Finally, a linear regression method in Waikato Environment for Knowledge Analysis (WEKA) was used to build prediction model for revealing LST spatial patterns. Results show that the final apparent surface temperature have uncertainties less than 1 degree Celsius. The comparison between the simulated and actual spatial pattern of LST in 2009 showed that the correlation coefficient is 0.65, mean absolute error (MAE) is 1.24 degree Celsius, and root mean square error (RMSE) is 1.51 degree Celsius of 22,429 pixels.
Highlights
The surface temperature is one of the main urban climatic parameters (Voogt and Oke, 2003)
This study aims to investigate the relationship between the urban morphology of a high density city and its urban climatic characteristics from a historical perspective
The effect of climate change on urban environment should be considered as where NDVImin and NDVImax correspond to the values of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) for bare soil and a surface with a vegetation fractional cover (VFC) of 100%, respectively
Summary
The surface temperature is one of the main urban climatic parameters (Voogt and Oke, 2003). Human activities changes the natural environment, which lead to the reductions of natural surface and long-wave emission of surface, release of atmosphere pollutants and waste heats These artificial factors determine the urban climate (Oke, 1978; Landsberg, 1987; Goldreich, 1995; Gomez et al, 1998). This study aims to investigate the relationship between the urban morphology of a high density city and its urban climatic characteristics from a historical perspective. It will help predict the spatial distribution of urban surface temperature in the future based on the predictable morphologic factors. A linear regression method in WEKA was used to predict spatial patterns of LST
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