Historical characteristics and projection of global renewable energy consumption

Abstract

Although renewable energy consumption (REC) is increasingly crucial for addressing climate change and existing literature focused on REC from various perspectives, the historical characteristics (i.e., convergence, inequality and driver) and prospective trajectory of REC are not well assessed especially at global scale, hindering the policy implications towards sustainable development. Therefore, the study presented an in-depth investigation on the historical characteristics above and projection of REC covering 39 countries over 1990–2020 using log t convergence model, Gini coefficient decomposition model, generalized Divisia index model and machine learning forecasting models, respectively. The results indicated that, first, historical tendency of global REC was recognized with two convergence clubs and divergent countries (the USA and China). Second, Gini coefficient of global REC is increasing where regional rank is the primary driver especially from the intra-inequality of non-OECD countries. Third, GDP seems to be the predominant drivers of the global REC, especially for most non-OECD countries. Forth, countries will make advancements in REC in the coming decades, with enduring trends. Consequently, collaborative efforts and concerted actions among nations in REC development are deemed essential to foster a more sustainable and equitable REC development pattern, contributing to the realization of sustainable development goals.