Abstract
The Ituri-Epulu-Aru landscape (IEAL) is experiencing deforestation and forest degradation. This deforestation is at the root of many environmental disturbances in a region characterized by endemism in biodiversity. The importance of this article is to provide useful information for those who wish to discuss a model that can be replicated for other territories affected by deforestation and changes in natural and anthropogenic forest structure. This article focuses on the triangulation of spatialized prospective scenarios in order to identify future trajectories based on the knowledge of historical dynamics through the diachronic analysis of three satellite images (2003–2010–2014–2016). The scenarios were designed in a supervised model implemented in the DINAMICA EGO platform. The three scenarios: business as-usual (BAU), rapid economic growth (REG) and sustainable management of the environment (SME), extrapolating current trends, show that by 2061 this landscape will always be dominated forests (+84%). Old-growth forests occupy 74.2% of the landscape area in the BAU scenario, 81.4% in the SEM scenario and 61.2% in the REG scenario. The SEM scenario gives hope that restoration and preservation of biodiversity priority habitats is still possible if policy makers become aware of it.
Highlights
Deforestation is one of the main environmental problems in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) [1]
The Ituri-Epulu-Aru landscape (2◦ 370 02200 –0◦ 310 03000 N, 27◦ 340 03400 –30◦ 000 03900 E, 40,862 km2 ) is one of the twelve Congo Basin Forest Partnership (CBFP) landscapes (Figure 1). It is located in the northeastern part of the Democratic Republic of the Congo
The dynamics of land use in the study area are characterized by deforestation and forest degradation
Summary
Deforestation is one of the main environmental problems in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) [1]. Studies show that deforestation and forest degradation cause disturbances at several levels, such as biodiversity loss, soil erosion and global warming [2]. These two processes lead to the modification of the composition and configuration of forest landscapes [3]. Old-growth forest is considered as the priority habitat for biodiversity because it corresponds with the undisturbed natural ecosystem [4,5]. Deforestation and habitat loss represent complex phenomena linked to several causes, in particular the expansion of agriculture, the extension of infrastructure, logging, economic, demographic, cultural, technological, political factors and institutional establishment [7,8,9]. The influence of these factors depends on their intensity and the duration of their pressure [10]
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