Historical and prospective lithium-ion battery cost trajectories from a bottom-up production modeling perspective

Abstract

Lithium-ion batteries (LiBs) are pivotal in the shift towards electric mobility, having seen an 85 % reduction in production costs over the past decade. However, achieving even more significant cost reductions is vital to making battery electric vehicles (BEVs) widespread and competitive with internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs). Recent trends indicate a slowdown, including a slight cost increase in LiBs in 2022. This study employs a high-resolution bottom-up cost model, incorporating factors such as manufacturing innovations, material price fluctuations, and cell performance improvements to analyze historical and projected LiB cost trajectories. Our research predicts potential cost reductions of 43.5 % to 52.5 % by the end of this decade compared to 2020. Furthermore, reaching cost parity between BEVs and ICEVs is expected in the latter half of this decade, contingent on a total installed capacity of 3500 to 4100 GWh.year−1 across giga-factories. The determinants influencing these cost reductions evolve over time, with historical significance placed on savings in cathode materials and anticipated future importance on minimizing scrap rates. This research offers valuable insights for policymakers and investors in the LiB industry, aiding informed decision-making.