Historical and Geographical Dimension of Interstate Territorial and Political Contradictions and Conflicts (2011–2022)

Abstract

The analysis of publications has revealed that the main attention is focused on the armed conflicts of the 19th-21st centuries regarding the belongingness of territories. Many territorial disputes date back to the past historical and geographical periods. In this article, we seek to find out the following important facts: 1) to establish the dynamics and average intensity of territorial and political conflicts during 2011–2021 based on the analysis of their intensity, particularly, in the context of individual parts of the world; 2) which and how many territorial political conflicts from previous geopolitical eras have remained relevant. Since we study territorial political conflicts in the context of the formation of the political world map, we must refer to the historical and geographical method. Its application allows for establishing historical geographic sections and defining which territorial political conflicts of 2011–2022 originate in a definite period of the formation of the political world map. The article applies the classical periodization of the political map formation: 1) ancient (from the era when the first state forms appeared to the 5th century AD); 2) medieval (V-XV centuries); 3) new (late 15th century – the end of the World War I in the 20th century); 4) contemporary (after the World War I to the present day). The contemporary period of the political map development includes five stages: 1) World War I and the Versailles-Washington peace system; 2) World War II and the Yalta-Potsdam peace system; 3) decolonization and formation of new independent states; 4) unsustainability of the socialist camp and termination of its existence; 5) modern stage. We have used this periodization arrange the data on the beginning, subject and intensity of conflicts according to 11 annual reports of the «Conflict Barometer» (2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021). From this database, we have selected conflicts based on such notions as «territory» and «secession». There was a total of 79 territorial and political conflicts during the research period, most of them were non-violent. This is evidenced by low intensity of the vast majority of conflicts. Cases when territorial and political conflicts developed into violent forms are not so numerous. During the period of 2011–2021, there were occasional limited wars (4 points) and the most acute conflicts with the maximum intensity at the «war» level (5 points) took place in Africa only for one year and in Europe for 6 years. The geography of territorial and political conflicts during the studied period demonstrates the leadership of Asia in terms of the number of conflicts over territory in the world. This circumstance destroys the stereotype about Africa, which is a continent that is the most vulnerable to conflicts. Europe, which is often mentioned as an example of the most peaceful macroregion with a significant track record of conflict resolution, is in fact not like that. A number of territorial and political claims from previous geopolitical eras remain relevant even when the key geopolitical and economic circumstances that provoked them have changed. The use of historical argumentation in the justification of territorial claims is illegitimate from the point of view of international law, however, it allows for the formation of an internal political agenda in states participating in territorial disputes. We have found out that the historical geopolitical narrative in substantiating territorial claims in many cases refers to the previous stages of the formation of the political world map. They are expressed in the form of mythologized territorial claims, unofficial historical territorial claims and official territorial claims. The maximal manifestation of the latter is the Russian authorities’ denial of Ukraine’s sovereignty over its sovereignly recognized territory and justification of armed aggression. The dreams of many about the conflict-free development of the world in the 21st century have not come true. Today’s challenge is to reject historical geopolitical narratives in the justification of territorial claims, as such that threaten peace and security in the world.