Abstract
BackgroundOne in four Swedish women suffers a hip fracture yielding high morbidity and mortality. We wanted to revalidate a 4-item clinical risk score and evaluate a portable heel bone mineral density (BMD) technique regarding hip and fragility fracture risk among elderly women.MethodsIn a population-based prospective cohort study we used clinical risk factors from a baseline questionnaire and heel BMD to predict a two-year hip and fragility fracture outcome for women, in a fracture preventive program. Calcaneal heel BMD was measured by portable dual X-ray laser absorptiometry (DXL) and compared to hip BMD, measured with stationary dual X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) technique.ResultsSeven women suffered hip fracture and 14 women fragility fracture/s (at hip, radius, humerus and pelvis) among 285 women; 60% having heel BMD ≤ -2.5 SD. The 4-item FRAMO (Fracture and Mortality) Index combined the clinical risk factors age ≥80 years, weight <60 kg, prior fragility fracture, and impaired rise-up ability. Women having 2-4 risk factors showed odds ratio (OR) for hip fracture of 5.9 and fragility fracture of 4.4. High risk group hip fracture risk was 2.8% annually compared to 0.5% for the low risk majority (69%). Heel BMD showed hip fracture OR of 3.1 and fragility fracture OR of 2.6 per SD decrease. For 30 DXA assessed participants mean hip BMD at -2.5 SD level corresponded to a lower BMD at the heel. Five of seven hip fractures occurred within a small risk group of 32 women, identified by high FRAMO Index + prior fragility fracture + heel T-score ≤-3.5 SD.ConclusionsIn a follow-up study we identified high risk groups for hip and fragility fracture with our plain 4-item risk model. Increased fracture risk was also related to decreasing heel BMD in calcaneal bone, measured with a mobile DXL technique. A combination of high FRAMO Index, prior fragility fracture, and very low BMD restricted the high risk group to 11%, among whom most hip fractures occurred (71%). These practical screening methods could eventually reduce hip fracture incidence by concentrating preventive resources to high fracture risk women.
Highlights
One in four Swedish women suffers a hip fracture yielding high morbidity and mortality
Around one fourth of the participants reported falls during the last year and one third reported prior fragility fracture (Table 1)
Around one third were high risk classified by the Fracture and Mortality (FRAMO) Index and each one of these four risk factors was found in 19%-38% of the participants
Summary
One in four Swedish women suffers a hip fracture yielding high morbidity and mortality. We wanted to revalidate a 4-item clinical risk score and evaluate a portable heel bone mineral density (BMD) technique regarding hip and fragility fracture risk among elderly women. HF risk group identification has been more fracture predictive by combining several clinical risk factors than by bone mineral density (BMD) assessment alone [24,25,26,27]. A typical fragility fracture usually occurs at distal radius, proximal humerus, pubic and ischial pelvic bones, hip or vertebrae after a low-energy trauma. BMD assessment with stationary Dual X-ray absorptiometry (DXA), rarely available in Swedish Primary Health care (PMC), has been evaluated for both fracture prediction and pharmacological treatment effects[30]. Spine BMD assessment has better prediction or was in line with hip assessment[27,31]
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