High-to-Low (Regional) Fertility Transitions in a Peripheral European Country: The Contribution of Exploratory Time Series Analysis

Jesus Rodrigo-Comino,Gianluca Egidi,Luca Salvati,Rosanna Salvia,Antonio Gimenez-Morera,Giovanni Quaranta

doi:10.3390/data6020019

Jesus Rodrigo-Comino, Gianluca Egidi + Show 4 more

Open Access

https://doi.org/10.3390/data6020019

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Abstract

Diachronic variations in demographic rates have frequently reflected social transformations and a (more or less evident) impact of sequential economic downturns. By assessing changes over time in Total Fertility Rate (TFR) at the regional scale in Italy, our study investigates the long-term transition (1952–2019) characteristic of Mediterranean fertility, showing a continuous decline of births since the late 1970s and marked disparities between high- and low-fertility regions along the latitude gradient. Together with a rapid decline in the country TFR, the spatiotemporal evolution of regional fertility in Italy—illustrated through an exploratory time series statistical approach—outlines the marked divide between (wealthier) Northern regions and (economically disadvantaged) Southern regions. Non-linear fertility trends and increasing spatial heterogeneity in more recent times indicate the role of individual behaviors leveraging a generalized decline in marriage and childbearing propensity. Assuming differential responses of regional fertility to changing socioeconomic contexts, these trends are more evident in Southern Italy than in Northern Italy. Reasons at the base of such fertility patterns were extensively discussed focusing—among others—on the distinctive contribution of internal and international migrations to regional fertility rates. Based on these findings, Southern Italy, an economically disadvantaged, peripheral region in Mediterranean Europe, is taken as a paradigmatic case of demographic shrinkage—whose causes and consequences can be generalized to wider contexts in (and outside) Europe.

Highlights

Results of our work delineate, likely better than other—more traditional—approaches, a fertility of our work delineate, likely better than other—more traditional—approaches, a fertiltrend typical of the late stages of the first demographic transition
Like other exploratory statistical techniques, our study showed the potential of multivariate time series analysis for regional demography. This analysis has highlighted the temporal structure of regional fertility rates in Italy, outlining the main shifts typical of the later stages of the first demographic transition and the greater volatility associated with the second demographic transition
With this perspective in mind, the recovery of gross birth rates in the 2000s is re-interpreted as a distinctive regional process of change, confirming the importance of spatial analysis in demographic transitions

Summary

Introduction

Economic stagnation has been regarded as a powerful cause of fertility decline [19,20,21] This process was rather evident in peripheral Europe, and especially in Mediterranean countries, since the mid-1970s [12,22,23,24,25,26]. Such trends significantly differed from those observed in Central Europe—despite the structurally low birth rates typical of this region—and were distinct from the high fertility of Western and Northern Countries [9,27,28,29,30,31], despite a temporary recovery associated with the 2000s economic expansion [32,33,34,35,36]

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Conclusion