High-Resolution Satellite Analysis and Model Evaluation of Clouds and Radiation over the Mackenzie Basin Using AVHRR Data

Abstract

Both the issues of high-resolution satellite analysis and model evaluation for a region centered on the Arctic Circle (60°–75°N) are addressed. Model cloud fraction, cloud height, and outgoing radiation are compared to corresponding satellite observations using a model-to-satellite approach (calculated radiances from model state). The dataset consists of forecasts run at 15-km resolution up to 30 h and nearly coincident Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) imagery during the Beaufort and Arctic Storm Experiment over the Mackenzie Basin for a monthly period in the fall of 1994. A cloud detection algorithm is designed for day and night application using the 11-μ channel of AVHRR along with available information on atmospheric and ground temperatures. The satellite and model estimates of cloud fraction are also compared to observations at 20 ground stations. A significant result of the validation is that the model has a higher frequency of low cloud tops and a lower frequency of midlevel cloud tops than the observations. On a monthly basis, the model 11-μ outgoing brightness temperature (TB) is consequently higher than observed by about 4.4 K at all forecast times, which corresponds to a deficit of 760 m in mean cloud-top height and about 10 W m−2 in outgoing flux at the top of the atmosphere. Possible errors in the parameterization of ice or water cloud emissivity are evaluated but ruled out as the dominant cause for the warm TB bias in the model. Rather, the problem is attributed to low clouds being trapped in the boundary layer, whereas high clouds appear to be reasonably well modeled. The role of thin ice clouds is further evaluated by comparing distributions of observed and modeled 11-μ minus 12-μ TB differences, DIF45 (channel 4 minus channel 5). The relationship between the true height of the clouds and the effective height observed by satellite is modeled from forecast outputs as a function of DIF45. The quality of daily estimates is evaluated from time series at various locations. The time series shows that there was a marked drop in DIF45 during the month, which is attributed to a decrease in the occurrence of cirrus clouds. Finally, the diurnal cycle of TB and cloud fraction is found to be relatively large with average monthly 0600–1800 UTC TB differences of both signs of the order of 4–8 K in broad sectors and cloud fraction differences of 10%–30%. Where low clouds prevail, the cloud fraction tends to decrease at night and TB increases. Overall, model–observation differences are dominated by differences in the vertical distribution of clouds. A reduction of this effect implies a modification of the “preferred” model climatology in terms of its vertical distribution of humidity and cloud water.