High-resolution (1 km) Köppen-Geiger maps for 1901–2099 based on constrained CMIP6 projections for seven socio-economic scenarios

Abstract

We present Version 2 of our widely used 1-km Köppen-Geiger climate classification maps for historical and future climate conditions. The historical maps (1901–1930, 1931–1960, 1961–1990, 1991–2020) are based on high-resolution, observation-based climatologies, while the future maps (2041–2070 and 2071–2099) are based on downscaled and bias-corrected climate projections for seven shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs). We evaluated 64 climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) and kept a subset of 40 with the most plausible CO2-induced warming rates. Under the “middle of the road” scenario SSP2-4.5, the global land surface area (excluding Antarctica) with suitable climatic conditions for tropical, arid, temperate, cold, and polar vegetation is projected to show a net change of +9 %, +3 %, −3 %, −2 %, −33 %, respectively, in 2071–2099 (with respect to 1991–2020). The Köppen-Geiger maps, including associated confidence estimates, the underlying monthly air temperature and precipitation data, and sensitivity metrics for CMIP6 climate models are available at www.gloh2o.org/koppen.