High-Order Hidden Bivariate Markov Model: A Novel Approach on Spectrum Prediction

Abstract

Spectrum prediction plays a critical role in cognitive radio networks because it is promising to significantly speed up the sensing process and hence save energy as well as improve resource utilization. However, most existing spectrum prediction models are not able to fully explore the hidden correlation among adjacent observations or appropriately describe the channel behavior. In this paper, we propose a novel prediction approach termed high-order hidden bivariate Markov model (H^2BMM), by leveraging the advantages of both HBMM and high-order. H^2BMM applies two dimensional parameters, i.e., hidden process and underlying process, to more accurately describe the channel behavior. In addition, the current channel state is predicted by observing multiple previous states. Extensive simulations are conducted and results verify that the prediction accuracy is significantly improved using the proposed H^2BMM compared with traditional Hidden Markov Model (HMM) and Hidden Bivariate Markov Model (HBMM).