Highlights from the First Ten Years of the New Zealand Earthquake Forecast Testing Center

Abstract

Research Article| June 13, 2018 Highlights from the First Ten Years of the New Zealand Earthquake Forecast Testing Center David A. Rhoades; David A. Rhoades aGNS Science, 1 Fairway Drive, Avalon, Lower Hutt 5010, New Zealand, d.rhoades@gns.cri.nz Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Annemarie Christophersen; Annemarie Christophersen aGNS Science, 1 Fairway Drive, Avalon, Lower Hutt 5010, New Zealand, d.rhoades@gns.cri.nz Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Matthew C. Gerstenberger; Matthew C. Gerstenberger aGNS Science, 1 Fairway Drive, Avalon, Lower Hutt 5010, New Zealand, d.rhoades@gns.cri.nz Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Maria Liukis; Maria Liukis bJet Propulsion Laboratory, 4800 Oak Grove Drive, Pasadena, California 91109 U.S.A. Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Fabio Silva; Fabio Silva cSouthern California Earthquake Center, University of Southern California, 3651 Trousdale Parkway, Los Angeles, California 90089‐0742 U.S.A. Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Warner Marzocchi; Warner Marzocchi dIstituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Via di Vigna Murata 605, 00143 Rome, Italy Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Maximilian J. Werner; Maximilian J. Werner eUniversity of Bristol, Tyndall Avenue, Bristol BS8 1TH, United Kingdom Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Thomas H. Jordan Thomas H. Jordan cSouthern California Earthquake Center, University of Southern California, 3651 Trousdale Parkway, Los Angeles, California 90089‐0742 U.S.A. Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Author and Article Information David A. Rhoades aGNS Science, 1 Fairway Drive, Avalon, Lower Hutt 5010, New Zealand, d.rhoades@gns.cri.nz Annemarie Christophersen aGNS Science, 1 Fairway Drive, Avalon, Lower Hutt 5010, New Zealand, d.rhoades@gns.cri.nz Matthew C. Gerstenberger aGNS Science, 1 Fairway Drive, Avalon, Lower Hutt 5010, New Zealand, d.rhoades@gns.cri.nz Maria Liukis bJet Propulsion Laboratory, 4800 Oak Grove Drive, Pasadena, California 91109 U.S.A. Fabio Silva cSouthern California Earthquake Center, University of Southern California, 3651 Trousdale Parkway, Los Angeles, California 90089‐0742 U.S.A. Warner Marzocchi dIstituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Via di Vigna Murata 605, 00143 Rome, Italy Maximilian J. Werner eUniversity of Bristol, Tyndall Avenue, Bristol BS8 1TH, United Kingdom Thomas H. Jordan cSouthern California Earthquake Center, University of Southern California, 3651 Trousdale Parkway, Los Angeles, California 90089‐0742 U.S.A. Publisher: Seismological Society of America First Online: 13 Jun 2018 Online Issn: 1938-2057 Print Issn: 0895-0695 © Seismological Society of America Seismological Research Letters (2018) 89 (4): 1229–1237. https://doi.org/10.1785/0220180032 Article history First Online: 13 Jun 2018 Cite View This Citation Add to Citation Manager Share Icon Share Facebook Twitter LinkedIn MailTo Tools Icon Tools Get Permissions Search Site Citation David A. Rhoades, Annemarie Christophersen, Matthew C. Gerstenberger, Maria Liukis, Fabio Silva, Warner Marzocchi, Maximilian J. Werner, Thomas H. Jordan; Highlights from the First Ten Years of the New Zealand Earthquake Forecast Testing Center. Seismological Research Letters 2018;; 89 (4): 1229–1237. doi: https://doi.org/10.1785/0220180032 Download citation file: Ris (Zotero) Refmanager EasyBib Bookends Mendeley Papers EndNote RefWorks BibTex toolbar search Search Dropdown Menu toolbar search search input Search input auto suggest filter your search All ContentBy SocietySeismological Research Letters Search Advanced Search ABSTRACT We present highlights from the first decade of operation of the New Zealand Earthquake Forecast Testing Center of the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP). Most results are based on reprocessing using the best available catalog, because the testing center did not consistently capture the complete real‐time catalog. Tests of models with daily updating show that aftershock models incorporating Omori–Utsu decay can outperform long‐term smoothed seismicity models with probability gains up to 1000 during major aftershock sequences. Tests of models with 3‐month updating show that several models with every earthquake a precursor according to scale (EEPAS) model, incorporating the precursory scale increase phenomenon and without Omori–Utsu decay, and the double‐branching model, with both Omori–Utsu and exponential decay in time, outperformed a regularly updated smoothed seismicity model. In tests of 5‐yr models over 10 yrs without updating, a smoothed seismicity model outperformed the earthquake source model of the New Zealand National Seismic Hazard Model. The performance of 3‐month and 5‐yr models was strongly affected by the Canterbury earthquake sequence, which occurred in a region of previously low seismicity. Smoothed seismicity models were shown to perform better with more frequent updating. CSEP models were a useful resource for the development of hybrid time‐varying models for practical forecasting after major earthquakes in the Canterbury and Kaikoura regions. 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