Abstract
Results of a superposed epoch (SPE) analysis of occurrence of phase scintillation and cycle slips at high latitudes keyed by arrival times of high-speed solar wind streams (HSS) and interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICME) for years 2008 to 2012 are presented. Phase scintillation index σ Φ is obtained in real time from L1 signal recorded at the rate of 50 Hz by specialized global positioning system (GPS) ionospheric scintillation and total electron content (TEC) monitors (GISTMs) deployed as a part of the Canadian High Arctic Ionospheric Network (CHAIN). The phase scintillation, mapped as a function of magnetic latitude and magnetic local time, occurs predominantly on the dayside in the cusp and in the nightside auroral oval. The scintillation occurrence peaks on days of HSS or ICME impacts at the Earth's magnetosphere and tapers off a few days later, which is similar to day-to-day variability of geomagnetic activity and riometer absorption at high latitudes. ICMEs that are identified as magnetic clouds are significantly more geoeffective than HSSs and ICMEs with no or weak magnetic cloud characteristics. On their arrival day, magnetic clouds result in higher occurrence, and thus probability, of scintillation in the nightside auroral zone. The SPE analysis results are used to obtain cumulative probability distribution functions for the phase scintillation occurrence that can be employed in probabilistic forecast of phase scintillation at high latitudes.
Highlights
Ionospheric scintillation (Aarons 1982, 1997; Aarons et al 2000; Basu et al 1987, 1995, 1998) of the Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) signal severely degrades positional accuracy, causes cycle slips which can lead to loss of lock, and affects performance of radio communications and navigation systems
We extended the superposed epoch (SPE) analysis of solar wind parameters and scintillation occurrence over a period of 5 years (2008 to 2012) and obtained probability distribution functions that can be used in probabilistic forecasting of phase scintillation and cycle slip occurrence at high latitudes
Since the solar wind disturbances like co-rotating interaction regions (CIRs) and interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICME) are the major causes of geomagnetic and ionospheric disturbances that result in enhanced scintillation, we applied the forecasting method by McPherron and Siscoe (2004) to forecast phase scintillation occurrence at high latitudes
Summary
Ionospheric scintillation (Aarons 1982, 1997; Aarons et al 2000; Basu et al 1987, 1995, 1998) of the Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) signal severely degrades positional accuracy, causes cycle slips which can lead to loss of lock, and affects performance of radio communications and navigation systems. GNSS receiver tracking performance during severe scintillation conditions can be assessed by the analysis of receiver phaselocked-loop (PLL) jitter (Conker et al 2003; Sreeja et al 2011). Statistical characterization and climatology of scintillation of global positioning system (GPS) signals show prevalence of phase over amplitude (Prikryl et al 2013b) and offer a potentially useful tool to provide users with expected tracking conditions. We extended the superposed epoch (SPE) analysis of solar wind parameters and scintillation occurrence over a period of 5 years (2008 to 2012) and obtained probability distribution functions that can be used in probabilistic forecasting of phase scintillation and cycle slip occurrence at high latitudes
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