Highest Harm Crime \u201cRecruiters\u201d in a London Borough: a Case of Moving Targets

Benedict Linton,Barak Ariel

doi:10.1007/s41887-020-00060-1

Abstract

Research QuestionCan criminal recruiters be identified and ranked by crime harm levels in a London borough, and if so, how long is the predictive window of opportunity for targeting them with crime prevention efforts?DataThis study deploys 5 years of Metropolitan Police Service crime data, relating to one of the 32 London boroughs in that time period. The data structure allowed identification of all suspects linked to the same crime report and all crime reports linked to the same suspects. Identification of linked suspects and their associated crime harm was undertaken using Structured Query Language (SQL) and ColdFusion Markup Language (CFML) via a web-based application.MethodsAll offenders were ranked by the number of co-offenders they acquired, as well as the total Cambridge crime harm index weight of the detected offences associated with them.FindingsThe highest harm recruiters are shown to be up to 137 times as harmful as the average offender, with one recruiter committing the same number of crimes as another but having 97 times more crime harm. Recruiter populations are highly dynamic, with few potential targets persisting from year to year over multiple years.ConclusionsThis study suggests that criminal recruiters are readily identifiable from police data, but police would only have a short window of opportunity to use deterrent or other preventive strategies with them once they are identified.

Highlights

Targeting police resources can be achieved through a number of methods, using different units of analysis
This study has successfully identified recruiters in a London borough according to the definitions used by previous authors
The subset of prolific offenders that are linked to a large number of younger co-offenders is identified on a similar scale as in previous studies and appears to be a fruitful target for police intervention based on this

Summary

Introduction

Targeting police resources can be achieved through a number of methods, using different units of analysis. Victims and offenders are the most prominent units, yet they may each feature different challenges for operational police purposes. One central challenge is to understand the causal links across crimes and criminals, especially in terms of the networks of co-offending that are detectable in police data. Such efforts can take police targeting strategies beyond the atomized individual offender and embed them in the relationships across offenders. This is especially important for offenders with high risk of causing high harm (Sherman et al 2016). It is even more important for offenders who may recruit other offenders to enter a life of crime for their first criminal act, or to enlist them in repeated co-offending activity (Sarnecki 2001)

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