Abstract
Quantifying how key life-history traits respond to climatic change is fundamental in understanding and predicting long-term population prospects. Age at first reproduction (AFR), which affects fitness and population dynamics, may be influenced by environmental stochasticity but has rarely been directly linked to climate change. Here, we use a case study from the highly seasonal and stochastic environment in High-Arctic Svalbard, with strong temporal trends in breeding conditions, to test whether rapid climate warming may induce changes in AFR in barnacle geese, Branta leucopsis. Using long-term mark–recapture and reproductive data (1991–2017), we developed a multi-event model to estimate individual AFR (i.e. when goslings are produced). The annual probability of reproducing for the first time was negatively affected by population density but only for 2 year olds, the earliest age of maturity. Furthermore, advanced spring onset (SO) positively influenced the probability of reproducing and even more strongly the probability of reproducing for the first time. Thus, because climate warming has advanced SO by two weeks, this likely led to an earlier AFR by more than doubling the probability of reproducing at 2 years of age. This may, in turn, impact important life-history trade-offs and long-term population trajectories.
Highlights
Global warming may have dramatic eco-evolutionary consequences [1,2] by changing long-term population dynamics [3] and the evolution of life-history traits [4,5]
Based on estimated individual at first reproduction (AFR), 35% of individuals reproduced for the first time as 2 year olds, while 88 and 97% had reproduced by 5 and 10 years of age, respectively
The top-ranked model suggested that a substantial number of individuals that were not observed as 2 year olds were breeding
Summary
Global warming may have dramatic eco-evolutionary consequences [1,2] by changing long-term population dynamics [3] and the evolution of life-history traits [4,5]. In Arctic geese, there is substantial age-related variation in reproduction [25], as well as temporal variation associated with timing of nesting, density dependence and food availability [26,27,28].
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