High Temperature Risk Assessment at the Municipal Scale in China

Abstract

As global warming leads to increases in the frequency and intensity of high temperatures, the negative impacts of high temperatures on human society are becoming increasingly severe. In recent years, heat risk has become the focus of many studies. To effectively address high temperature risks, a high temperature risk evaluation index system was constructed based on Chinese meteorological, demographic, and economic data in three dimensions: hazard, exposure, and vulnerability. The results of this study reveal the spatial pattern of high temperature risks, and identify the main factors contributing to these risks through a contribution model. (1) During 1961–2020, the intensity of high temperatures and the number of high temperature days in China showed a fluctuating upward trend, which was most obvious in the southeast and northwest. (2) The clustering characteristics of high-temperature risk distribution in China were clear, and the high-risk areas were mainly distributed in the southeast and northwest. The urban high-temperature risk values were between 0.00 and 0.50, among which Yuxi, Turpan, Hangzhou, Nanchang, and several other cities had greater high temperature risks. (3) The hazard and vulnerability contributions were the largest among high-risk cities and low-risk cities, respectively. Among the hazard-causing cities, Turpan had the largest hazard contribution; while among the exposure-causing cities, Shenzhen had the largest exposure contribution; and among the vulnerability-causing cities, Pingliang had the largest vulnerability contribution. The findings of this study are of great significance by providing information that will enable an effective response to high-temperature risks and that can be used to strengthen regional disaster prevention as well as mitigation and sustainable economic development.