High Summer Temperatures and Mortality in Estonia.

Daniel Oudin Åström,Christofer Åström,Kaidi Rekker,Ene Indermitte,Hans Orru,Jeffrey Shaman

doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0155045

Daniel Oudin Åström, Christofer Åström + Show 4 more

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https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0155045

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Abstract

BackgroundOn-going climate change is predicted to result in a growing number of extreme weather events—such as heat waves—throughout Europe. The effect of high temperatures and heat waves are already having an important impact on public health in terms of increased mortality, but studies from an Estonian setting are almost entirely missing. We investigated mortality in relation to high summer temperatures and the time course of mortality in a coastal and inland region of Estonia.MethodsWe collected daily mortality data and daily maximum temperature for a coastal and an inland region of Estonia. We applied a distributed lag non-linear model to investigate heat related mortality and the time course of mortality in Estonia.ResultsWe found an immediate increase in mortality associated with temperatures exceeding the 75th percentile of summer maximum temperatures, corresponding to approximately 23°C. This increase lasted for a couple of days in both regions. The total effect of elevated temperatures was not lessened by significant mortality displacement.DiscussionWe observed significantly increased mortality in Estonia, both on a country level as well as for a coastal region and an inland region with a more continental climate. Heat related mortality was higher in the inland region as compared to the coastal region, however, no statistically significant differences were observed. The lower risks in coastal areas could be due to lower maximum temperatures and cooling effects of the sea, but also better socioeconomic condition. Our results suggest that region specific estimates of the impacts of temperature extremes on mortality are needed.

Highlights

On-going climate change is predicted to result in a growing number of extreme meteorological events—such as heat waves—throughout Europe [1]
The effect of high temperatures and heat waves are already having an important impact on public health in terms of increased mortality, but studies from an Estonian setting are almost entirely missing
We found an immediate increase in mortality associated with temperatures exceeding the 75th percentile of summer maximum temperatures, corresponding to approximately 23°C

Summary

Introduction

On-going climate change is predicted to result in a growing number of extreme meteorological events—such as heat waves—throughout Europe [1]. The effect of high temperatures and heat waves are already having an important impact on public health in terms of increased mortality and morbidity [2,3,4,5], with heightened susceptibility reported among the elderly [6] and groups with chronic disease [7]. On-going climate change is predicted to result in a growing number of extreme weather events—such as heat waves—throughout Europe. The effect of high temperatures and heat waves are already having an important impact on public health in terms of increased mortality, but studies from an Estonian setting are almost entirely missing.

Methods

Discussion

Conclusion