High Speed Rail, megalopolis and house prices: what is the link?

Abstract

In the recent years High Speed Rail (HSR) systems deployment has changed users’ travel behaviour together with their life style thanks to their power of shrinking spaces. Investments in HSR systems are not only motivated by an increase in transport infrastructure capacity and their being environmentally friendly, but also by the fact that they promote economic growth and regional development. Indeed the objective of this paper is to build a framework for understanding and exploring the relationships between the phenomenon of megalopolis formation and HSR and determine the possibility and magnitude of associated impacts on house prices. The original contribution of this paper is represented by the specification of a model which aims to explain the mechanisms through which metro areas integrate into megalopolises and to understand what is the role of HSR systems in this respect. Generalized linear models (GLMs) are here considered the most suitable ones in order to model the phenomenon under analysis. The dependent variables are represented by the changes in house prices between the cities connected by the HSR link, while as dependent variables several socio-economic indicators have been considered as well transport related variables, such as HSR travel time, HSR travel cost, HSR frequency, etc. Three HSR corridors in Italy have been chosen as case studies, i.e. MITO (MIlano-TOrino, in the north), BOFIRO (BOlogna-FIrenze-ROma in the centre) and RONA (ROma-NApoli in the south) having the potential for megalopolises formation as supported by HSR. Model estimation provides interesting results. Specifically, the main conclusion is that Milano and Torino are two independent cities and that the HSR link connecting the two cities has not an impact on the formation of the MITO megalopolis. The same result for the cities of Bologna, Firenze and Roma, while for the case study of the RONA it seems that a megalopolis exists between the two having also an impact on house prices change.