Abstract
Permafrost is degrading on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) due to climate change. Permafrost degradation can result in ecosystem changes and damage to infrastructure. However, we lack baseline data related to permafrost thermal dynamics at a local scale. Here, we model climate change impacts on permafrost from 1986 to 2075 at a high resolution using a numerical model for the Beiluhe basin, which includes representative permafrost environments of the QTP. Ground surface temperatures are derived from air temperature using an n-factor vs Normalized Differential Vegetation Index (NDVI) relationship. Soil properties are defined by field measurements and ecosystem types. The climate projections are based on long-term observations. The modelled ground temperature (MAGT) and active-layer thickness (ALT) are close to in situ observations. The results show a discontinuous permafrost distribution (61.4%) in the Beiluhe basin at present. For the past 30 years, the permafrost area has decreased rapidly, by a total of 26%. The mean ALT has increased by 0.46 m. For the next 60 years, 8.5–35% of the permafrost area is likely to degrade under different trends of climate warming. The ALT will probably increase by 0.38–0.86 m. The results of this study are useful for developing a deeper understanding of ecosystem change, permafrost development, and infrastructure development on the QTP.
Highlights
Climate warming rates at high latitudes and high altitudes are greater than the global average [1,2,3]
The approaches used in this study give detailed permafrost thermal dynamic maps, which can serve as an up-to-date baseline to assess permafrost development and infrastructure planning in the future
The GIPL 2.0 permafrost model is applied to a permafrost area, where a large number of field datasets are available for model validation
Summary
Climate warming rates at high latitudes and high altitudes are greater than the global average [1,2,3] This warming has produced many changes to the cryosphere, including the permafrost, as evidenced by permafrost temperature increases and positive trend of the active-layer thickness [4]. Changes in the active-layer thickness and permafrost temperature due to climate warming affects infrastructure, ecosystems [11,12], and the stability of slopes [13] on the QTP. One is the thermal boreholes across this region (2006–2016), reported by Yin et al [26], which provide general information about the permafrost temperature and ALT, geology, geomorphology, and soil hydrology. The code of the GIPL 2.0 model is available on the GitHub website: https://github.com/Elchin/GIPL
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