High Resolution Urban Land-use Change Modeling: Agent iCity Approach

Abstract

The process of urban land use change is influenced by the interactions of various stakeholders who have conflicting values and priorities. These interactions, which are characterized by a strong competition for advantageous land locations, can be represented by an agent-based model in order to better understand, analyze and forecast possible future urban land use patterns. The objective of this study is to develop and implement Agent iCity, an agent-based model that simulates the process of urban land-use change by using irregular spatial units at a cadastral scale and by incorporating the interactions of the key stakeholders. The simulation outcomes are generated for two scenarios of the process of urban land use change as it occurs under the conditions of different urban growth policies. The model is implemented on municipal cadastral and land use data for part of the City of Chilliwack, Canada, a city that has experienced rapid growth in the last decade. The results indicate that that relative household incomes and property values drive the changes in urban land use patterns as households search for affordable homes in suitable neighbourhoods. The developed Agent iCity model can assist urban planners in better understanding and analysis of the changes in urban land use patterns.