High-resolution topographic variables accurately predict the distribution of rare plant species for conservation area selection in a narrow-endemism hotspot in New Caledonia

Abstract

Species distribution models (SDMs) represent a widely acknowledged tool to identify priority areas on the basis of occurrence data and environmental factors. However, high levels of topographical and climatic micro-variation are a hindrance to reliably modelling the distribution of narrow-endemic species when based on classic occurrence and climate datasets. Here, we used high-resolution environmental variables and occurrence data obtained from dedicated field studies to produce accurate SDMs at a local scale. We modelled the potential current distribution of 23 of the 25 rarest species from Mount Kaala, a hotspot of narrow-endemism in New Caledonia, using occurrence data from two recent sampling campaigns, and eight high-resolution (10 m and 30 m) environmental predictors in a Species Distribution Modelling framework. After a first sampling operation, we surveyed six additional areas containing, overall, 13 of the 20 species modelled at this stage, to validate our projections where the highest species richness levels were predicted. The ability of our method to define conservation areas was largely validated with an average 84% of predicted species found in the validation areas, and additional data collected enabling us to model three more species. We therefore identified the areas of highest conservation value for the whole of Mount Kaala. Our results support the ability of SDMs based on presence-only data such as MaxEnt to predict areas of high conservation value using fine-resolution environmental layers and field-collected occurrence data in the context of small and heterogeneous systems such as tropical islands.