High-resolution regional climate–CFD integrated modelling to inform climate responsive design of northern buildings in a changing climate

Abstract

In permafrost regions, where climate change poses significant challenges to infrastructure stability, understanding the thermal behaviour of buildings is crucial. This study conducts a detailed investigation into the thermal performance of elevated buildings in permafrost regions within the context of a changing climate. High-resolution regional climate simulation-informed computational fluid dynamics (CFD) models were developed for northern buildings. The findings indicate that the presence of elevated buildings can disrupt the permafrost’s natural thermal equilibrium in the future. This disturbance can extend vertically and horizontally, potentially leading to altered ground temperature gradients and increased air and ground temperatures by 4.25% and 3.85%, respectively. The research findings also highlight a 12.75% reduction in wind speed beneath the study building when transitioning from the local scale (i.e., single-building) to the neighbourhood scale (i.e. with surrounding buildings). These results underscore the critical significance of exploring the neighbourhood scale in building design and planning within permafrost regions, emphasizing the need for comprehensive assessment tools to inform effective strategies and decisions. The holistic approach adopted in this study, sets out a clear vision to guide northern adaptation initiatives that address some of the climate change issues in the buildings’ design by utilizing integrated climate system-built environment modelling.