Abstract

In this study, we employ two regional climate models (RCMs or RegCMs), which are RegCM4 and PRECIS (Providing Regional Climates for Impact Studies), with a horizontal grid spacing of 25 km, to simulate the precipitation dynamics across China for the baseline climate of 1981–2010 and two future climates of 2031–2060 and 2061–2090. The global climate model (GCM)—Hadley Centre Global Environment Model version 2-Earth Systems (HadGEM2-ES) is used to drive the two RCMs. The results of baseline simulations show that the two RCMs can correct the obvious underestimation of light rain below 5 mm day−1 and the overestimation of precipitation above 5 mm day−1 in Northwest China and the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, as being produced by the driving GCM. While PRECIS outperforms RegCM4 in simulating annual precipitation and wet days in several sub-regions of Northwest China, its underperformance shows up in eastern China. For extreme precipitation, the two RCMs provide a more accurate simulation of continuous wet days (CWD) with reduced biases and more realistic spatial patterns compared to their driving GCM. For other extreme precipitation indices, the RCM simulations show limited benefit except for an improved performance in some localized regions. The future projections of the two RCMs show an increase in the annual precipitation amount and the intensity of extreme precipitation events in most regions. Most areas of Southeast China will experience fewer number of wet days, especially in summer, but more precipitation per wet day (≥ 30 mm day−1). By contrast, number of wet days will increase in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau and some areas of northern China. The increase in both the maximum precipitation for five consecutive days and the regional extreme precipitation will lead to a higher risk of increased flooding. The findings of this study can facilitate the efforts of climate service institutions and government agencies to improve climate services and to make climate-smart decisions.

Highlights

  • China has been vulnerable to various hazards caused by extreme weather/climate events

  • There is an urgent demand for more accurate assessments of flood and drought risks brought about by future climate change, beyond the coarse assessment based on the global climate models (GCMs) of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5)

  • Our study evaluates the ability of two RCMs, RegCM4 and PRECIS (Providing Regional Climates for Impact Studies), being driven by Hadley Centre Global Environment Model version 2-Earth Systems (HadGEM2-ES) under two scenarios of global warming, in simulating the mean and extreme climate by comparing with the observation, and examine their projections of future precipitation

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Summary

Introduction

China has been vulnerable to various hazards caused by extreme weather/climate events. There is an urgent demand for more accurate assessments of flood and drought risks brought about by future climate change, beyond the coarse assessment based on the global climate models (GCMs) of CMIP5 This urgent demand has stimulated a growing number of publications on simulating and predicting extreme precipitation in China (e.g., Chen, 2013; Wang and Chen, 2014; Li et al, 2016; Sun et al, 2016; Gu et al, 2018). Our study evaluates the ability of two RCMs, RegCM4 and PRECIS (Providing Regional Climates for Impact Studies), being driven by Hadley Centre Global Environment Model version 2-Earth Systems (HadGEM2-ES) under two scenarios of global warming, in simulating the mean and extreme climate by comparing with the observation, and examine their projections of future precipitation.

Observational data
Models
Key indicators for performance assessment
Evaluation of historical simulation
Projection of future climate
Conclusions and discussion
Full Text
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