Abstract

Rooftop solar photovoltaics currently account for 40% of the global solar photovoltaics installed capacity and one-fourth of the total renewable capacity additions in 2018. Yet, only limited information is available on its global potential and associated costs at a high spatiotemporal resolution. Here, we present a high-resolution global assessment of rooftop solar photovoltaics potential using big data, machine learning and geospatial analysis. We analyse 130 million km2 of global land surface area to demarcate 0.2 million km2 of rooftop area, which together represent 27 PWh yr−1 of electricity generation potential for costs between 40–280 $ MWh−1. Out of this, 10 PWh yr−1 can be realised below 100 $ MWh−1. The global potential is predominantly spread between Asia (47%), North America (20%) and Europe (13%). The cost of attaining the potential is lowest in India (66 $ MWh−1) and China (68 $ MWh−1), with USA (238 $ MWh−1) and UK (251 $ MWh−1) representing some of the costliest countries.

Highlights

  • Rooftop solar photovoltaics currently account for 40% of the global solar photovoltaics installed capacity and one-fourth of the total renewable capacity additions in 2018

  • Rooftop Solar photovoltaics (RTSPV) technology as a subset of the solar photovoltaic electricity generation portfolio can be deployed as a decentralized system either by individual homeowners or by large industrial and commercial complexes

  • We started by dividing the global landmass into a Fishnet Grid (FN) containing a total of 3,521,120 unique squares of 10 km[2] size, where each FN has a unique id and is attributed to a unique country

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Summary

Introduction

Rooftop solar photovoltaics currently account for 40% of the global solar photovoltaics installed capacity and one-fourth of the total renewable capacity additions in 2018. As the demand for electricity as an energy source increases in the future, RSTPV based generation sources will form a large part of the future renewable-based generation portfolio This shift in the current generation mix coupled with the future low carbon generation capacity expansion can aid in reducing the energy-derived greenhouse gas emissions and aid in advancing the SDG13 goal of combating climate change with cobenefits for the SDG3. Along with the complexities associated with accurately determining the rooftop area, assessment of seasonal variations of its potential is important to understand the supply dynamics of variable renewable energy (VRE) technologies like RTSPV. This highlights the need for a high-resolution spatiotemporal assessment that accurately represents the geographical variability of the built environment along with impacts of seasonal changes in solar insolation

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