High Resolution Deterministic Prediction System (HRDPS) Simulations of Manitoba Lake Breezes

Abstract

ABSTRACTThe Effects of Lake Breezes On Weather–Manitoba (ELBOW-MB) field project, conducted around Lakes Manitoba and Winnipeg in July 2013, was the first in-depth field study of lake breezes in Manitoba, Canada. Using observational data collected during ELBOW-MB and output from the 2.5 km Canadian High Resolution Deterministic Prediction System (HRDPS), comparisons were made between HRDPS output and observational data to determine whether the HRDPS can simulate Manitoba lake breezes. The model comparisons considered various lake-breeze characteristics, such as depth, inland penetration distance, and initiation and dissipation time. In addition, cross-sections of lake-breeze circulations were analyzed. The results show that the HRDPS was able to correctly simulate lake breezes, or lack thereof, in 78% of cases on Lake Winnipeg and 68% of cases on Lake Manitoba. Modelled lake-breeze initiation and dissipation times were found to be too early in some cases and too late in others when compared with observations. Overall, it was found that the HRDPS was able to simulate most aspects of lake breezes, although inland penetration distance was one characteristic that the HRDPS was not able to simulate realistically.