Abstract
We propose an extended 3D space (longitude, latitude, and depth) epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model for seismicity forecasts beneath the greater Tokyo area (the Kanto region), which also takes into account the effects induced by the M9 Tohoku-Oki earthquake of 2011. The model is characterized by a number of 3D location-dependent parameters, such as the background seismicity rates, and the productivity rate induced by the Tohoku earthquake. These allow production of high-resolution predictive mappings in zones where hypocenters are densely populated. The optimally inverted 3D spatial images of the characterizing parameters effectively discriminate seismicity features in the crust and near the plate boundaries. The success of the model is demonstrated using short-, intermediate- and long-term probability forecasts of intermediate and large earthquake occurrences beneath the Kanto region.
Highlights
Introduction and dataThe dense population of the Tokyo metropolis prompted the government’s Earthquake Research Committee (2004) to predict, and subsequently update, the longterm probability of an M7 class earthquake beneath the southern Kanto Plain
Because three tectonic plates meet beneath Kanto Plain, their interactions, and forecasting of the occurrence of inter-plate and intraplate earthquakes, are too complex for approaches such as the 2D space–time epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) models, as
We here define a flexible 3D hierarchical space–time ETAS model that allows for such effects
Summary
Introduction and dataThe dense population of the Tokyo metropolis prompted the government’s Earthquake Research Committee (2004) to predict, and subsequently update, the longterm probability of an M7 class earthquake beneath the southern Kanto Plain. We first apply the temporal ETAS model to see the change of seismicity in the Kanto region, before and after the M9 Tohoku-Oki earthquake. We analyze the seismic activity beneath the Kanto Plain using a 3D model taking the induced effects of the M9 Tohoku-Oki earthquake into consideration.
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