Abstract
ABSTRACTWe combine the results of a radiocarbon (14C) dating program with archaeogenetic, osteological and sparse stratigraphic data, to construct a Bayesian chronological model for a multi-generational sequence situated entirely on a plateau in the 14C calibration curve. Calibrated dates of individual human bones from the Late Neolithic gallery grave at Niedertiefenbach, Hesse, Germany, span the entire calibration plateau in the late 4th millennium (ca. 3350–3100/3000 cal BC), but our model restricts the overall period of burial to 3–6 generations centered on the later 3200s, and provides narrower absolute date ranges for specific individuals and associated events. We confirm the accuracy and robustness of this model by sensitivity tests of each of its components. Beyond providing a more dynamic narrative for the formation of the heterogenous burial population at Niedertiefenbach, our results show that calibration plateaus are suitable periods for Bayesian chronological modeling of even relatively brief sequences, provided that all the information employed is correct. Prior information constraining both the order of events, and of potential date differences between them, is essential for the model to give accurate, unimodal estimates of the dates of these events.
Highlights
Bayesian Chronological Modeling and the Calibration CurveBayesian chronological modeling (Buck et al 1996) has become a standard tool for interpreting radiocarbon (14C) results from archaeological sequences (Bayliss 2009, 2015; Hamilton and Krus 2018), both because it can improve the precision of individual site chronologies, and because it can be used to estimate the dates of events or transitions which cannot be dated directly, such as the replacement of pottery types (e.g. Whittle et al 2016)
Calibrated dates of individual human bones from the Late Neolithic gallery grave at Niedertiefenbach, Hesse, Germany, span the entire calibration plateau in the late 4th millennium, but our model restricts the overall period of burial to 3–6 generations centered on the later 3200s, and provides narrower absolute date ranges for specific individuals and associated events
Beyond providing a more dynamic narrative for the formation of the heterogenous burial population at Niedertiefenbach, our results show that calibration plateaus are suitable periods for Bayesian chronological modeling of even relatively brief sequences, provided that all the information employed is correct
Summary
Bayesian Chronological Modeling and the Calibration CurveBayesian chronological modeling (Buck et al 1996) has become a standard tool for interpreting radiocarbon (14C) results from archaeological sequences (Bayliss 2009, 2015; Hamilton and Krus 2018), both because it can improve the precision of individual site chronologies, and because it can be used to estimate the dates of events or transitions which cannot be dated directly, such as the replacement of pottery types (e.g. Whittle et al 2016). Bayesian Chronological Modeling and the Calibration Curve. Bayesian chronological modeling (Buck et al 1996) has become a standard tool for interpreting radiocarbon (14C) results from archaeological sequences (Bayliss 2009, 2015; Hamilton and Krus 2018), both because it can improve the precision of individual site chronologies, and because it can be used to estimate the dates of events or transitions which cannot be dated directly, such as the replacement of pottery types When the period of interest (e.g. the use of a site) is shorter than the calibration plateau, Bayesian models of large sets of precise 14C dates on short-lived samples may fail to refine a chronology or eliminate alternative sequences of events (e.g. Millard in Gaydarska et al 2019). Such anchors are not available, or are unrepresentative of the site chronology (e.g. may date the start of phase of activity, but not its end)
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