Abstract

Situation modeling and threat prediction require higher levels of data fusion in order to provide actionable information. Beyond the sensor data and sources the analyst has access to, the use of out-sourced and re-sourced data is becoming common. Through the years, some common frameworks have emerged for dealing with information fusion—perhaps the most ubiquitous being the JDL Data Fusion Group and their initial 4-level data fusion model. Since these initial developments, numerous models of information fusion have emerged, hoping to better capture the human-centric process of data analyses within a machine-centric framework. 21st Century Systems, Inc. has developed Fusion with Uncertainty Reasoning using Nested Assessment Characterizer Elements (FURNACE) to address challenges of high level information fusion and handle bias, ambiguity, and uncertainty (BAU) for Situation Modeling, Threat Modeling, and Threat Prediction. It combines JDL fusion levels with nested fusion loops and state-of-the-art data reasoning. Initial research has shown that FURNACE is able to reduce BAU and improve the fusion process by allowing high level information fusion (HLIF) to affect lower levels without the double counting of information or other biasing issues. The initial FURNACE project was focused on the underlying algorithms to produce a fusion system able to handle BAU and repurposed data in a cohesive manner. FURNACE supports analyst’s efforts to develop situation models, threat models, and threat predictions to increase situational awareness of the battlespace. FURNACE will not only revolutionize the military intelligence realm, but also benefit the larger homeland defense, law enforcement, and business intelligence markets.

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