High gas dependence for power generation in Thailand: The vulnerability analysis

Abstract

Thailand uses 74% of its natural gas supply for power generation and 70% of its power comes from gas-based technology. High dependence on natural gas in power generation raises concerns about security of electricity supply that could affect competitiveness of Thai manufacturing and other industries at the global level. The effect of fuel dependence on security of electricity supply has received less emphasis in the literature. Given this gap, this research examines the economic impact of high dependence on natural gas for power generation in Thailand by analyzing the effect of changes in fuel prices (including fuel oil and natural gas) on electricity tariff in Thailand. At the same time, the research quantifies the vulnerability of the Thai economy due to high gas dependence in power generation. Our research shows that for every 10% change in natural gas price, electricity tariff in Thailand would change by 3.5%. In addition, we found that the gas bill for power generation consumed between 1.94% and 3.05% of gross domestic product (GDP) between 2000 and 2004 and in terms of GDP share per unit of energy, gas dependence in power generation is almost similar to that of crude oil import dependence. We also found that the basic metal industry, being an electricity intensive industry, is the most affected industry. Additionally, we find that volatility of gas price is the main factor behind the vulnerability concern. The research accordingly simulates two mitigation options of the problem, namely reducing gas dependence and increasing efficiency of gas-fired power plants, where the results show that these methods can reduce the vulnerability of the country from high gas dependence in power generation.