High food commodity prices: will they stay? who will pay?

Abstract

AbstractMuch of the public discussion of the food price crisis has focused on the sharply increased use of food commodities for biofuel production, framing debate in simple food versus fuel terms. Reality is more complex. Multiple forces drove food prices to high levels and, according to findings we report in this article, these forces will sustain high prices over the medium term. We also find that the distinction between high world prices for food commodities and the consumer costs of food is an important one to make. Food consumers do not buy raw food commodities at international prices. The degree to which the price of traded food commodities and the price of food are related depends on a long list of factors, most of which operate to dampen price transmission. In the search for appropriate policy response, it is essential to measure consumer effects correctly and to apportion properly the causes of current high prices.