High concordance between urine toxicology results and self-reported fentanyl use in Nevada and New Mexico

Abstract

Background Co-use of stimulants and opioids is often deliberate. However, the possibility remains that some people are unintentionally consuming fentanyl. To advance understanding of overdose risk, we examined the rate of concordance between self-reported fentanyl use and corresponding urine toxicology screen results. Methods Between August 2022–August 2023, 411 participants (adults who reported any non-medical drug use in the past three months) in Nevada and New Mexico completed a cross-sectional survey, of whom 64% (n = 270; the analytical sample) also completed a urine toxicology screen, which detects fentanyl use in the past three days. Positive predictive value, negative predictive value, sensitivity, and specificity were calculated using self-reported past three-day fentanyl use (yes/no) and urine toxicology screen results for the presence of fentanyl (positive/negative). Results Of the 270 participants who provided a urine sample, 268 are included in the descriptive statistics (two with inconclusive urine toxicology screen results were excluded). Of the 268 participants, 146 (54.5%) had a fentanyl-positive urine toxicology screen result, 122 (45.5%) had a fentanyl-negative urine toxicology screen result, 137 (51.1%) reported past three-day fentanyl use, and 130 (48.5%) reported no past three-day fentanyl use. Only 6.9% of those with a fentanyl-positive urine toxicology screen did not report recent fentanyl use. The sensitivity of self-reported fentanyl use was 93%, specificity was 97%, positive predictive value was 97%, and negative predictive value was 92%. Discussion The rate of unanticipated exposure to fentanyl (that is, positive urine screen and negative self-report) in this sample was low, at 6.9%. This runs counter to the national narrative that there is widespread unknown contamination of fentanyl in the drug supply. Conclusion Future research is needed to further explore how people who use multiple substances interpret their overdose risk and what harm reduction methods they employ.