HIGH-2-LOW risk model to predict venous thromboembolism in allogeneic transplant patients after platelet engraftment.

Abstract

Venous thromboembolism (VTE) after allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT) is a significant treatment-associated complication, although optimal timing of thromboprophylaxis remains uncertain when weighing concurrent risks of bleeding. We aimed to derive and internally validate a risk assessment model (RAM) using patients who underwent first allogeneic HCT from 2006 through 2015 (n = 1703). Index date was defined as the 30th day after transplant, at which point we estimated >75% of patients would have achieved platelet engraftment >50 × 109/L. Stepwise logistic regression modeling was used for model development, and internal validation was achieved by fitting a logistic regression model with 1000 bootstrapped resamples to estimate the optimism-corrected c-statistic. The final RAM, "HIGH-2-LOW," included 7 predictors obtained at 30 days after transplant: History of catheter-related deep venous thrombosis (DVT), Inpatient at day 30, Graft-versus-host disease grade 3 to 4, History of pulmonary embolism or lower-extremity DVT, Lymphoma diagnosis, Obesity with body mass index ≥35 kg/m2, and White blood cell count ≥11 × 109/L. Approximately 16% of patients were stratified as high risk, with incident VTE rate of 10.3% at 100 days compared with 1.5% for those at low risk. VTE odds ratios at 100 days were 5.87 (95% confidence interval [CI], 2.98-11.57) and 2.71 (95% CI, 1.38-5.35) in the high- and intermediate-risk vs low-risk groups, respectively. HIGH-2-LOW model serves as a novel and potentially clinically meaningful tool to identify high-risk allogeneic HCT patients who may benefit from early thromboprophylaxis after platelet engraftment.