Hierarchies improve individual assessment of temporal discounting behavior.

Abstract

Delay discounting behavior has proven useful in assessing impulsivity across a wide range of populations. As such, accurate estimation of the shape of each individual's temporal discounting profile is paramount when drawing conclusions about how impulsivity relates to clinical and health outcomes such as gambling, addiction, and obesity. Here, we identify an estimation problem with current methods of assessing temporal discounting behavior, and propose a simple solution. First, through a simulation study we identify types of temporal discounting profiles that cannot reliably be estimated. Second, we show how imposing constraints through hierarchical modeling ameliorates these recovery problems. Finally, we apply our solution to a large data set from a temporal discounting task, and illustrate the importance of reliable estimation within patient populations. We conclude with a brief discussion on how hierarchical Bayesian methods can aid in model estimation, compensate for small samples, and improve predictions of externalizing psychopathology.