Hierarchical analysis to assess the direction of the national energy policy

Abstract

Summary form only given, as follows. Establishing a national energy policy and pursuing the petroleum development of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR) is a very complicated subject with many important issues. A hierarchical decision process (HDP) model can identify the key factor(s) so that the stakeholders can focus on the decisionmaking. The authors present an HDP model that can be used as a decision support tool to help identify an energy development strategy and whether to develop ANWR or pursue other energy alternatives, such as conservation, nuclear power, or solar energy. In the HDP structure, economics, politics, and the environment are the issues identified by industry, government, and individuals. An oil industry lobbyist and an environmentalist provided data input into this HDP model. The model was able to identify the key factors that the individuals support. A solution was reached as to the direction of the national energy policy that would satisfy the oil lobbyist and the environmentalist. The HDP model can provide effective insight into the strategic issues and differences and identify the best alternative. >