Abstract
In this study we used HadCRUT4 monthly mean near surface temperature anomalies for 1950–2014 years in order to investigate properties of recent warming. Our aim was to separate changes produced by short-term natural variations and to look on temporal and spatial dynamics of residual temperature anomalies. For this we subtract linear influence of El Nino Southern Oscillation from each grid box of surface temperature measurements. We found that residual global temperature dynamics looks like staircase function: linear trends for three quasi-stable periods 1950–1987, 1988–1997 and 1998–2014 are near zero and near all warming occurred during two shifts of 1987/1988 and 1997/1998 years. Examples of similar staircase behavior of some climate parameters were found in NCEP/NCAR and NASA MERRA reanalysis data. Staircase signal suggests the existence of some regulation mechanism in climate system. This mechanism should maintain global temperature adjusted for El Nino Southern Oscillation near stable in 1950–1987, 1988–1997 and 1998–2014 periods nevertheless all the time growing forcing due to anthropogenic greenhouse gases.
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