Hidden deaths: corrected estimates of homicides in Bahia, Brazil, 1996- 2015.

Abstract

The objective of this study was to correct and estimate five-year homicide rates in Bahia, Brazil, for the 1996-2015 period. An ecological study of the homicides was carried out using official data from the Mortality Information System of the Ministry of Health. Deaths due to assault are classified in the codes X85-Y09 of the International Classification of Disease 10th Revision (ICD-10). A proportional redistribution of deaths classified as events of undetermined intent (Y10-Y34) was carried out and mortality correction factors were applied. In the analyzed period, 67,599 homicides were registered in the Mortality Information System; after the second correction, 88,429 homicide deaths were estimated. Comparing the official and adjusted figures, there was an underreporting of 30.8%. The highest corrected homicide rates were observed in the eastern region, in Pojuca (129.8 homicides per 100,000 inhabitants), Lauro de Freitas (117.7) and Simões Filho (114.3); in the southern region, in Santa Luzia (121.4), Valença (87.6) and Itabuna (86.5); and in the far south, Santa Cruz Cabrália (128.2), Itabela (113.3) and Porto Seguro (106.8). After correction, there was an increase in homicides in all of the five-year periods in the municipalities analyzed, which resulted in an even higher mortality rate.