HFC-134a emissions from mobile air conditioning in China from 1995 to 2030

Abstract

Since 1995, 1,1,1,2-tetrafluoroethane (CH2FCF3, HFC-134a) has become the most important substitute of CFC-12 in mobile air conditioning (MAC) in China and MAC sector has dominated all the emissions of HFC-134a. In this study, we developed an accurate, updated and county-level inventory of the HFC-134a emissions from MAC in China for the period of 1995–2030 with an improved bottom-up method. Our estimation indicated that the total HFC-134a emissions kept growing at increase rates of ∼100% per year for 1995–2000 and ∼34% per year for 2001–2010. In 2010, HFC-134a emissions from MAC in China reached 16.7 Gg (10.5–22.7 Gg at 95% confidential interval), equivalent to 21.7 Tg CO2 (CO2-eq). Furthermore, the emissions in China estimated in this study accounted for 9.8% of global HFC-134a emissions and 29.0% of total emissions from Non-Annex_I countries in 2010. Due to the more advanced social-economic conditions and more intensive ownership of automobiles, greater HFC-134a were observed to come from big cities in East China. Under a Business-as-usual (BAU) Scenario, projected emissions will grow to 89.4 (57.9–123.9) Gg (about 75.3–161.1 Tg CO2-eq) in 2030, but under an Alternative Scenario, 88.6% of the projected emissions under BAU scenario could be curbed. Our estimation demonstrates huge emission mitigation potential of HFC-134a in China's MAC sector.