Abstract
AbstractIn late 2022, Israel and Lebanon signed a US‐brokered maritime agreement establishing their permanent maritime boundary and exclusive economic zones, and regulating their rights to gas exploration in the eastern Mediterranean. Preceding the agreement was a sustained coercive‐diplomacy campaign by Hezbollah. Between June and October, the organization conveyed overt and covert threats, and it pursued actions that were unprecedented in the Israel‐Hezbollah conflict: openly threatening to target Israel's entire gas production and risk all‐out war if Israel proceeded with its plan to unilaterally extract gas from the contested Karish gas field. A textbook case of coercive diplomacy, Hezbollah's maneuver was calculated and deliberate, which reflects the group's strategic expertise. Drawing on open‐source materials and public statements in Arabic and Hebrew, this article analyzes Hezbollah's coercive‐diplomacy campaign and examines its implications for escalation scenarios between Israel and its central military opponent.
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