Heuristics and protective behavior for floods

Abstract

AbstractFindings from the literature of flood risk management have suggested that heuristics increase exposure to flood risks. This article models some of these conventional heuristics. The main finding emerging from survey data is that not every heuristic significantly correlates with the decision of households to not take protective actions. Flood experience, as it has been corroborated in the literature, turned out to be the main driver among residents living in flood‐prone areas in Southeast Queensland, Australia, to take protective actions against flood risks. More specifically, households who featured perceived negative flood experiences were more likely to take out flood insurance, retrofit or raise their property, and relocate. This survey analysis is supported by the Theory of Ecological Rationality. It suggests that flood mitigation policies should create models that mimic real‐world decision‐making processes to gain further insights into how flood experience affects risk perception and decision‐making under uncertainty.