Heuristic strategy of intuitive statistical inferences in 7- to 10-year-old children

Abstract

Intuitive statistical inferences refer to making inferences about uncertain events based on limited probabilistic information, which is crucial for both human and non-human species’ survival and reproduction. Previous research found that 7- and 8-year-old children failed in intuitive statistical inference tasks after heuristic strategies had been controlled. However, few studies systematically explored children’s heuristic strategies of intuitive statistical inferences and their potential numerical underpinnings. In the current research, Experiment 1 (N = 81) examined 7- to 10-year-olds’ use of different types of heuristic strategies; results revealed that children relied more on focusing on the absolute number strategy. Experiment 2 (N = 99) and Experiment 3 (N = 94) added continuous-format stimuli to examine whether 7- and 8-year-olds could make genuine intuitive statistical inferences instead of heuristics. Results revealed that both 7- and 8-year-olds and 9- and 10-year-olds performed better in intuitive statistical inference tasks with continuous-format stimuli, even after focusing on the absolute number strategy had been controlled. The results across the three experiments preliminarily hinted that the ratio processing system might rely on the approximate number system. Future research could clarify what specific numerical processing mechanism may be used and how it might support children’s statistical intuitions.