Heuristic Model to Compute Indices for Classification of Incidence and Non-Incidence of Thunderstorms Over Ranchi With Atmospheric Parameter

Kanchan Bala,Mili Ghosh,Sanchita Paul

doi:10.1109/access.2021.3106064

Kanchan Bala, Mili Ghosh + Show 1 more

Open Access

https://doi.org/10.1109/access.2021.3106064

Copy DOI

Journal: IEEE Access	Publication Date: Jan 1, 2021
Citations: 1	License type: CC BY 4.0

Affiliation: Birla Institute of Technology, Mesra

Abstract

Prediction of incidences of thunderstorms using different techniques is quite well established. To add to this knowledge, in this paper, a heuristic equation is proposed which relates the correlation coefficient of atmospheric parameters with the number of hourly incidences of thunderstorms. There are four ways to compute the indices values from the proposed heuristic equation. These indices values are used in the classification of the hourly incidences of thunderstorms. The proposed equation and indices work well, as tested on pre-monsoon hourly atmospheric data from 2018 and validated with hourly data from April 2019 and 2020. From the four indices, the first index value is computed with normalized average values of parameters of only hourly incidence of thunderstorms data of 2016-2017 in the month-wise method. The other three indices use optimization techniques namely, the Teaching Learning Based Optimization (TLBO) technique, Differential Evaluation (DE), and Simulated Annealing (SA). TLBO shows better classification of hourly incidences of thunderstorms for 2018 atmospheric data. TLBO is also precisely validating the hourly incidences of thunderstorms for April 2019 and April 2020 hourly atmospheric data. It performed better with 2020 data by 88%. The variations of atmospheric parameters before, after or, during the incidences of thunderstorms are also depicted.

Highlights

The thunderstorm is a violent and short-lived weather phenomenon, which associates with heavy rain alongwith strong gusty wind, dense clouds, lightning, and thunder
The purpose of the present study is to propose a heuristic equation with the indices values to classify the incidences of thunderstorms over Ranchi City during the pre-monsoon season
These parameters contribute to the generation of the heuristic equation that is used in the classification of hourly incidence of thunderstorms for two years data from 2016 to 2017

Summary

Introduction

The thunderstorm is a violent and short-lived weather phenomenon, which associates with heavy rain alongwith strong gusty wind, dense clouds, lightning, and thunder. When lightning passes through the air quickly and intensely, shock waves produce a sharp rumbling sound. These rumbling sounds are known as thunders [25]. Single-cell storms are weak and produce brief weather events They usually have lifetimes of 20-30 minutes and companioned with brief heavy rain and sometimes occasional weak tornadoes. Multicell cluster storms are another common type of thunderstorms They consist of a group of cells that moving as one unit. It consists of a long line of the storm that is a continuous well developed gust These thunderstorms produce hail, heavy rain, and weak tornadoes. The supercell thunderstorms are highly organized and pose a high threat to life and property [55]

Objectives

Methods

Findings

Conclusion