Heterogenost inflatornih procesa u Evropskoj monetarnoj uniji

Abstract

Paper analyses the extent to which inflation processes in Eurozone member countries are heterogeneous. Eurozone is composed of 19 different countries, are they similar enough to share the common currency? Significant heterogeneity of inflation processes makes the management of common monetary policy very complicated, since it poses contradicting demands, so it will not suit all members. Growing inflation has been very significant problem in the world since the beginning of 2021 and events in the first quarter of 2022 brought even higher, unprecedented rise in inflation rates. How might that influence the management of common monetary policy? Should we fear of new debt crisis in EMU? It was expected that Monetary union will support the integration of labor, product and capital markets, which will further reduce the heterogeneity of inflation processes. Literature review showed significant achievement in inflation convergence when comparing period before and after the advent of Monetary union, however problems occurred in later stages. Our analysis indicates significant departure of inflation process in majority of member countries from EMU average and among themselves. There is no statistically significant convergence of inflation rates, while there is a unit root in the series of standard deviations of inflation differentials. Coefficient of variations shows large differences in inflation rates in a single period, variability of inflation between members is very high, and variations of inflation seem insufficiently correlated. Inflation rates show significant persistence measured by autocorrelation coefficients, and there are differences among member countries showing that their inflation transmission processes differ.