Heterogeneous Space–Time Artificial Neural Networks for Space–Time Series Prediction

Abstract

AbstractSpace–time series prediction plays a key role in the domain of geographic data mining and knowledge discovery. In general, the existing methods of space–time series prediction can be divided into two main categories: statistical machine learning methods. Comparatively, machine leaning methods have obvious advantages with respect to handling nonlinear problems. However, space–time dependence and the heterogeneity of space–time data are not well addressed by the existing machine learning methods. Because of this limitation, an accurate prediction of a space–time series is still a challenging problem. Therefore, in this study, both space–time dependence and heterogeneity are incorporated into the feedback artificial neural network, and heterogeneous space–time artificial neural networks (HSTANNs) are developed for space–time series prediction. First, to handle spatial heterogeneity, space–time series clustering is used to divide the study area into a set of homogeneous sub‐areas. Then, a space–time autocorrelation analysis is employed to explore the space–time dependence structure of the dataset. Finally, a HSTANN is established for each sub‐area. Further, HSTANNs are applied to predict the concentrations of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) in Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei. The experimental results show that when compared with other methods, the accuracy of the forecasting results is considerably improved by using HSTANNs.