Heterogeneous job-matches and the cyclical behavior of labor turnover

Abstract

Worker flows to and from unemployment simultaneously occur over the US business cycle, and the size of the flows is positively linked to the unemployment rate. Unemployment flows and the unemployment rate are highly volatile, persistent and countercyclical. Inflows lead the unemployment rate, and the unemployment rate leads outflows over the business cycle. The one-sector stochastic growth model is augmented by matching frictions in the labor market and match-specific productivity shocks that introduce ex post heterogeneous job-matches. Matching frictions help generate the lead–lag relationship between unemployment flows and the unemployment rate. Combined with heterogeneous job-matches they generate endogenous unemployment flows and an unemployment rate whose dynamic characteristics match observed data.