Heterogeneous effects of economic assistance on mortality risk in violent conflicts in Africa

Abstract

ABSTRACT Armed conflicts in Africa have serious harmful impacts on human well-being. Existing evidence on whether economic aid (Official Finance, OF) reduced conflicts is diverse and contested. China has become one of the world’s largest overseas financiers. Taking the impacts of China’s OFs on conflict-related mortality risk (CRMR) as a case study is representative of addressing the issue. Combining the data of China’s OFs covering 52 African countries with armed conflict data from 2000 to 2017, we employ the instrumental variable and two-stage least squares estimation to explore the relationship between China’s OFs and CRMR. Our results indicate an 18% decrease (95% confidence interval (CI): 2–34%) in CRMR in a year after the OF commitment for a 1% increase in OF amounts. The OFs in social infrastructures (e.g. health, education and civil society) had greater positive impacts on the CRMR reduction than those in economic and production sectors. More pronounced effects of OFs are observed on small-scale state-based conflicts, in countries with low-level road infrastructures than their counterparts. Our findings give the references for policy-makers to optimize the pathway of the OFs for providing better relief to war-torn regions.