Heterogeneity in Inflation Expectations and Personal Experience

Abstract

Poor households report significantly higher inflation expectations than rich households. We assess, both theoretically and empirically, whether these differences are due to the recall of different shopping experiences and of information about aggregate inflation. Using data on shopping experiences, we show that the inflation expectations of each income group depend on the group’s past grocery experiences as well as on past aggregate inflation. To explain this finding, we build a psychologically founded model in which consumers observe prices while shopping and listen to news about the general level of inflation, and – when predicting future inflation – they selectively recall the most frequent and salient memories. The model predicts that inflation expectations overweight frequent and salient memories, which leads to predictable errors in forecasting future inflation. We confirm these predictions in our data and show that our model accounts for the bulk of expectation differences across income groups.