Abstract
Beginning on December 31, 2019, the large-scale novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) emerged in China. Tracking and analysing the heterogeneity and effectiveness of cities’ prevention and control of the COVID-19 epidemic is essential to design and adjust epidemic prevention and control measures. The number of newly confirmed cases in 25 of China’s most-affected cities for the COVID-19 epidemic from January 11 to February 10 was collected. The heterogeneity and effectiveness of these 25 cities’ prevention and control measures for COVID-19 were analysed by using an estimated time-varying reproduction number method and a serial correlation method. The results showed that the effective reproduction number (R) in 25 cities showed a downward trend overall, but there was a significant difference in the R change trends among cities, indicating that there was heterogeneity in the spread and control of COVID-19 in cities. Moreover, the COVID-19 control in 21 of 25 cities was effective, and the risk of infection decreased because their R had dropped below 1 by February 10, 2020. In contrast, the cities of Wuhan, Tianmen, Ezhou and Enshi still had difficulty effectively controlling the COVID-19 epidemic in a short period of time because their R was greater than 1.
Highlights
Beginning on December 31, 2019, the large-scale novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) emerged in China
How effective were the control measures taken by cities in China in controlling the COVID-19 epidemic? When will COVID-19 prevention and control measures begin to play an important role in different cities? Is the effectiveness of control of the COVID-19 epidemic the same across cities? A total of 37,726 people were confirmed with COVID-19 in China by February 10, while the confirmed cases in 25 of the worst-hit cities accounted for 92% of the total number
Based on the number of confirmed cases in the 25 worst-hit cities from January 11, 2020 to February 10, 2020, a dynamic estimation method of R 17 was used to estimate the R changes in 25 cities to assess the degree of control of the COVID-19 epidemic, and a serial correlation m ethod18 was used to analyse the differences in the control effect of the COVID-19 epidemic among cities
Summary
Beginning on December 31, 2019, the large-scale novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) emerged in China. The heterogeneity and effectiveness of these 25 cities’ prevention and control measures for COVID-19 were analysed by using an estimated time-varying reproduction number method and a serial correlation method. Based on the number of confirmed cases in the 25 worst-hit cities from January 11, 2020 to February 10, 2020, a dynamic estimation method of R 17 was used to estimate the R changes in 25 cities to assess the degree of control of the COVID-19 epidemic, and a serial correlation m ethod was used to analyse the differences in the control effect of the COVID-19 epidemic among cities. It provides guidance for the government to adjust prevention and control measures for the COVID-19 epidemic
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