Herpes zoster vaccination and new diagnoses of dementia: A quasi-randomized study in Australia.

Abstract

Increasing evidence suggests that neurotropic herpesviruses could play a role in the development of dementia, possibly through a neuroinflammatory process. Herpes zoster (HZ) vaccination has been reported to lead to a reduced probability of being diagnosed with dementia in several correlational studies and in a prior analysis by our team in Wales. This present study constitutes the first investigation to use a quasi-randomized study design in an electronic health record dataset from a large and diverse nation (Australia) to aim to determine the effect of HZ vaccination on dementia. In Australia, starting on November 1 2016, live-attenuated HZ vaccination was provided for free to individuals aged 70 to 79 years of age through primary care providers. Thus, those whose 80th birthday was just a few days prior to November 1 2016 never became eligible, whereas those whose 80th birthday was just a few days later were eligible. The key advantage of our approach is that one would not expect that these population groups who differ in their age by only a minute degree would, on average, differ in any of their health characteristics and behaviors. We used detailed primary healthcare records with week-of-birth information from 65 general practices across Australia. We analyzed our data using a regression discontinuity approach. Our sample consisted of 101,219 patients. As expected, patients born just before versus shortly after the date-of-birth eligibility threshold (November 2 1936) for HZ vaccination were well-balanced in their past preventive health services uptake and chronic disease diagnoses. There was an abrupt increase of 15.7 (95% CI: [12.2 - 19.3], p < 0.001) percentage points in the probability of ever receiving HZ vaccination between patients born shortly before versus shortly after the eligibility threshold. The eligibility rules of the HZ vaccination program, thus, created comparison groups just on either side of the date-of-birth eligibility threshold who were similar to each other, except for a large difference in their probability of receiving the intervention (HZ vaccination) of interest. Eligibility for HZ vaccination (i.e., being born shortly before versus shortly after November 2 1936) decreased the probability of receiving a new dementia diagnosis over 7.4 years by 2.0 percentage points (95% CI: [0.3 - 3.7], p = 0.021). Being eligible for HZ vaccination did not affect the probability of taking up other preventive health services (including other vaccinations), nor the probability of being diagnosed with other common chronic conditions than dementia. This study provides important evidence on the potential benefits of HZ vaccination for dementia because its quasi-randomized design allows for conclusions that are more likely to be causal than those of the existing associational evidence.