Hemoglobin-A1c level to predict for clinical outcomes in patients with pancreatic cancer.

Abstract

4039 Background: An association between diabetes mellitus (DM) and pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDA) has long been recognized. While long-standing DM may be a risk factor for developing PDA, new-onset DM may be a manifestation of the cancer. Here we assess the role of an objective and quantifiable measure of glucose intolerance, hemoglobin-A1c (HbA1c), in predicting clinical outcomes in PDA. Methods: HbA1c values were prospectively collected on 656 consecutive patients presenting to the Johns Hopkins Pancreas Multidisciplinary Cancer Clinic from 2009-2012. Patients were diagnosed with benign pancreatic disease (BPD) or biopsy-confirmed resectable (R), borderline/locally advanced (BL), or metastatic (M) PDA. Patients with prior treatment for PDA or a history of DM greater than a 1-year were excluded. Univariate Cox regression analyses and multivariable proportional hazards models were used to identify poor prognostic factors for overall survival. Results: Of 284 patients included, 44 had benign disease, 62 R-PDA, 115 BL-PDA, and 63 M-PDA. Patients with malignant disease (R-, BL-, and M-PDA) collectively had higher HbA1c values on average at presentation than patients with BPD (6.1% vs. 5.6%, p<0.001). There was a trend towards higher HbA1c at presentation in patients with advanced PDA (BL and M) compared to patients with R-PDA (6.2% vs. 5.9%, p=0.100); moreover, the proportion of patients with HbA1c levels in the diabetic range (>6.4%) increased with more advanced stage of disease. Among patients with PDA (n=240), univariate analyses showed HbA1c≥6.5, age≥65, ECOG≥1, CA19-9>90, tumor size >3cm, and advanced stage to be significantly associated with inferior survival (all HR>1, p<0.05). After multivariate analysis with backward elimination, all of the above factors except for tumor size >3cm remained in the model for inferior survival. Conclusions: HbA1c level at presentation appears to correlate with disease stage and, moreover, to predict for survival among all stages of PDA. Patients with PDA have significantly higher HbA1c levels at presentation than patients with BPD. This study highlights the potential utility of HbA1c as a screening tool and prognostic factor.