Heligman-pollard modification by using the makeham death rate to predict the life table of the elderly

Abstract

Increasing the number of elderly people in the world is increasing every year, indicating that the economic factors of the community are getting better and also improving services and public health sciences and other factors. The purpose of this research is to find out the number of elderly people in a country. This can be seen by using a complete life table. But in some developing countries in the world do not have a complete life table and only have a abriged life table with an age interval of 5 years or 10 years. Based on the increase in the elderly population in the world researchers want to make the life table of the elderly based on a complete life table by using the interpolation method. Interpolation methods, for example, are the Heligman-Pollard, Elandt-Johnson, Kostaki, and others. In this study, the researchers tried to modify the Heligman-Pollard interpolation method by flexing it with the death rate of the Gompertz distribution. Thus formed the Heligman-Pollard modification using the death rate of the Gompertz distribution. Based on the modification, the result is that the method can predict the complete life table by the original complete life table data from the United States of America in 2014. With the R2 result of 0.985017