Hedonic Analysis of Housing Demand Dynamics as a Driving Force of Urban Sprawl in Ankara

Abstract

In Ankara, capital of Turkey, the neoliberalism in the 1980’s has differentiated the manner of housing supply. The period of housing for all segments of society have begun besides affordable housing. Such an economic development has caused urban sprawl with the impacts of land speculation, increase in transportation facilities and some incorrect public policies. All these drivers of urban sprawl are most closely associated with the housing market, so housing demand dynamics in particular are become the main determinants of uncontrolled urban growth. The leapfrog development of Ankara’s western corridor in the last four decades remains a challenge for central-local governments. Land consumption, insufficient public transport for the expanding urban area, socio-spatial segregation, and urban infrastructure imposing additional financial burden threaten both environmental and economic sustainability. Today, although there are enough vacant lots in the city center, the city is growing outward and there is great pressure on the rural-urban fridge where farming still occurs. Furthermore, spatial development in this region and upper scale plan decisions are in conflict with each other. It is obvious that the driving forces of urban sprawl will be better understood by determining the housing demand dynamics. In this study, a hedonic model is established to analyze the dynamics of housing demand, which is the hidden driving force of urban sprawl in Ankara. The in-situ study including 303 face-to-face surveys is conducted in Alacaatli and Yasamkent Neighborhoods -approximately the size of 2,420 hectares- on June 2018 and data obtained as a result of the survey are used as variables in the hedonic model. The findings reveal that factors such as security and crime that reduce welfare in the city center and low-quality or traditional housing types in the city center stimulate the urban expansion towards large open spaces. The results show that socioeconomic status and lifestyles are related with the preference to live in urban sprawl areas, and the city center is not preferred for residential purposes since it is seen as unsafe and chaotic. It is proposed that the domain-specific housing demand dynamics in urban sprawl areas must be considered in spatial planning assumptions for the sustainable development of Ankara.